WHERE THE OCEAN AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONVERGE
The most straightforward explanation is that it occurs as a result of a complicated interaction between pressure, winds, and ocean currents.
You'll also notice that the trade winds are now beginning to play a significant part in the quick change from cold to mild ENSO conditions.
ENSO Winter to Spring evolution
THE EL NINO IS RISING
you can see the rapid warming trend in regions 1 and 2. Central region 3.4 also follows behind, with eastern region 3 already well in the warm anomalies.
WEATHER STARTS IN REGIONS 1 AND 2
The ensemble forecast for the 1+2 ENSO areas is shown below. Once more, temperatures are rising quickly, and an anomaly of 2 to 4 degrees above average is predicted.
EL NINO FORECAST 2023
ENSO AND THE HURRICANE SEASON
There is often a strong and prolonged low-pressure region in the North Pacific during the El Nino winter season.
WINTER WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE EL NINO